Plenty of times in the last 28 years all four #1 seeds have been alive for the Sweet Sixteen. Only four times though have they still been playing in the Elite Eight. This season, not only are all four #1 seeds still around, but they are each heavy favorites to win their next game. In the East, most people feel that UNC caught a major break when Kevin Durant and Texas were knocked out of the tournament by USC. While USC would not have beaten Texas if they were not playing great, you have to believe that they stand a worse chance than Texas would have of knocking off the Tar Heels considering the potential impact of Durant. Ohio St gets to play Tennessee in the South region. While Tennessee is a very dangerous team and able to put up a ton of point on the board, they play a 6'3" power forward. Ohio St. has 7'1" Greg Oden in the middle. With this major size difference, Ohio St. has to be considered a huge favorite. In the remaining regions, Kansas and Florida are each playing mid-major teams. Florida is matching up against Butler, while Kansas faces Southern Illinois. Both of these mid-majors have had great seasons, which is how they earned their five and four seeds respectively, but matching up against the very top of the major conferences is extremely tough. The bottom line is that with the exception of George Mason a year ago, the deeper you get into the tournament the more the power conference teams move on and the mid majors flop.
There is one team left in each region that would scare me if I was a #1 seed.
East: Georgetown
West: UCLA
South: Texas A&M
Midwest: Oregon
Georgetown and UCLA are both teams that play exceptional defense and are efficient at the offensive end. While Georgetown beats people up inside, UCLA play more of a perimeter oriented game on the offensive end. Both teams could have made arguments for #1 seeds at the beginning of the tournament and both are picked by many to not only make the Final Four but to win the whole thing. I can not say which team is more dangerous, so I will just say that these two teams are without a doubt the biggest obstacles to an all #1 seed Final Four.
Texas A&M is a veteran team that has played tough all season. They have a tremendous leader in Acie Law at the point, and have proven that they can play big in tough spots. Earlier in the season they went into Kansas and beat the Jayhawks on their home floor. Oregon is a team that can flat out light it up. They have been inconsistent during the season, but they start five guys who can each stroke the three. They have shown the ability that if they get hot, they can beat anyone.
People are probably reading this and saying who cares? First of all it is still so early to talk like this and second of all it this NEVER happens. I don't see a reason for why it will never happen in the future though. A 16 beating a one? That will never happen (baring a crazy injury). All four #1s in the Final Four? It is too logical for it not to happen at some point. Why not this season? These four #1s may be the most talented group since the tournament was extended to 64 (65) teams. Think about this, since the NBA instituted its age limit, the college talent pool is back to what it was in the early 1990's. In addition, with so many kids going to college with the only intention of leaving after one or two seasons, the big programs are just stockpiling crazy talent knowing that they do not have to worry about keeping a spot for a kid for four years. This is the same reason that mid-majors have been able to have more success in the tournament in the earlier rounds. The mid-majors are recruiting more of the players that are staying three and four years, thus that experience pays off early in the tournament. As the tournament progresses though, the talent usually wins out.
UNC and Kansas have two of the more talented squads of recent memory. They each can play at any tempo, can score on the inside or outside, rebound the ball and play tough defense. They each go at least 10 deep and can be characterized as relentless in their approach on the court in that they keep on coming with more players and intensity through out a every game. Both teams could have multiple first round draft picks this June and should have enough firepower to compete at a high level next season no matter which players elect to leave for the NBA.
Ohio St. meanwhile has possibly the most unique player to see the college game since Tim Duncan or even Shaquille O'Neal. While Greg Oden is still very raw on the offensive end, he was still able to lead the team in scoring, dropping 16ppg while shooting 60%. His greater impact can be felt on the defensive end though where he averages over three blocks per game. While he is not nearly the only talent they have, he is what makes this team different from any of the past number of years. No team or player can truly match-up with Oden, and every game he has the potential to absolutely take over.
The last of the #1 seeds is the University of Florida. They are the defending champs and have the entire starting five back from their championship team of a year ago. This has not happened in a long time. Every team going back to at least the 1994 Arkansas team either started seniors or had players leave early for the NBA. This team is as battle tested as they come and they seem to play as well as they need to until they have to reach another gear, which they always seem to be able to do. They have three sure NBA first round picks and a coach who has been to two national title games, winning one. While they do not have the depth of other teams, they have crazy talent and unmatched experience.
Will all four of these teams make the final four? Judging by history, probably not. As evidenced by above though, I feel that these #1 seeds are as good of a group as the tournament has seen. We all know from watching this tournament that anything can happen. For the first time ever though, anything could be four #1's in the Final Four. While we all love the upsets and the cinderellas, these four teams matching up in the end would be better than anything we could have predicted and possibly ever seen in the Tournament or more specifically, Final Four.
Randoms
I am so impressed with Al Horford, but I still think Noah is the leader of that Floria ballclub. They feed off of his energy on both ends of the court. Both should be top 10 picks in this upcoming draft.
The East teams are all but giving the Knicks a playoff spot, but they don't seem to want it. No matter what happens this season though, it will be interesting to see how the organization treats Isiah next season when they do not show the "significant" progress of this season.
How tough of a spot are the Minnesota Twins in? Francisco Liriano is out this entire season and Johan Santana has this season and next season at which point his contract expires. They need to pray that Liriano comes back at full strength next year and go all out next year and hope for one big run, or look to trade Santana while they can get a boatload of prospects for him.
Addendum to the #1 seed post. Not only do I see the #1 seeds as being so good, but besides Georgetown and UCLA, I just saw the, even at the beginning of the tournament, as head and shoulders above and beyond the rest of the field.
STKAFI (Sell the Knicks and Fire Isiah)
5 comments:
I would say there are 6.5 contenders to win it all.
4 number 1's, ucla, gtown and A & M (.5)
Based on that why is this year any different in terms of how many number 1's will make it? I agree they are head and shoulders better, but when you mix in those other 3 along with dark horses like UNLV, Southern Illinois, Memphis... seems like a pretty standard year to me.
More on Hortford vs. Noah comin from me Thurs.
IF you assume that all four #1s get into the Elite Eight (which is not a stretch at all considering who they each are playing), then this tournament is already unique in that only four other times have all four #1s made it to the Elite Eight. At that point, each would have a good game ASSUMING that all the higher seeds won to reach the next round, which is unlikely. We will see how it plays out, but is no #1 seed that is not recognized as an absolute powerhouse in this bunch, unlike other years...Memphis (2006), Washington (2005), St Joseph's (2004), and many other years...
One more thing about Oden. Not only does he average about 3 blocks per game, but he changes the way teams attack the basket. He alters shots and forces teams with an inside game to play on the perimeter. Which I why I feel they would match up very well against a UNC or a Georgetown, but might have trouble against a Tennessee, UCLA or even A&M. These teams play a perimeter oriented, run and gun type of game which could draw Oden away from the basket. I have a hard time believeing Ohio St. will come out of that region. I even think UT has a very, very good chance of knocking them off this week.
Also, does anyone else find it weird that we are the only ones commenting on our own blog? AWKIES!!
fear not matthew, awkward no more...
first, a 16 seed will win a game in our lifetime and it wont be because of injury. all it will take is a little poor seeding by the selection committee. neal brought up weak 1 seeds in the past and there will be more in the future. combine that with the fact that 1 seeds have struggled (uconn last year, unc during the serge zwikerr era, gtown against princeton when jojo was still in diapers, and others) and its bound to happen. if a 15 can beat a 2, the 16 over 1 is a natural evolution. just takes a few more bad bounces and the over-talented under-achieving one seed to turn it on one minute too late and u got a very happy 8/9 seed.
katz is right...bruce pearl (bc grad what up) and tennessee should win. only a 5 point dog (the closest spread of the 1 seeds) they played osu well on the road earlier this year (granted oden was recently back, but still had oden like numbers), but tennessee can...and will...nail 3's and i dont think osu will win a shootout in the 70s or 80s. the refs have been calling games tight in the tourney so far and that doesnt favor oden at all. even though tennessee wont be attacking the basket that much i wouldnt be shocked to see oden in foul trouble (with maybe even two offensive fouls).
as for four 1 seeds...i agree it still probably wont happen, but if it did, it would be awesome. the quality of play and matchups was mentioned, but besides the fact that pool winners across the country would deserve a punch in the face for being such pu55ies with their picks, not having all the 1 seeds has become the norm, so a first in the rich history of the ncaa tourney would be just as crazy as the years with two 8 seeds or an 11 or no 1 seeds.
unc over kansas with oregon and tennessee also in atlanta. tennessee is my only change from my original jojo bracket (had louisville)...and i had the vols in lesser pools so i gotta stick with them. im sure im wrong, but as long as unc wins, s'all good.
I think three number one seeds get to the final four with OSU being the exception. Georgetown is overhyped and UNC is too tough. Florida always seems to get it together at the right time (game, season, tournament) and Kansas looks virtually unbeatable.
Not only would I love to see a KU-UNC final for bracket reasons, but I would love to see Roy Williams rock, chalk, cut down the net in Lawrence's face.
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