Friday, February 12, 2010

Break!

Always the trendy time to evaluate the potential of a season. I know a lot could happen between now and the all-star break. I truly believe there are only five teams with potential to win it all though, no matter what happens in the trade market. So....here we go..

1. LAKERS:
PROS
-Kobe
-Size
-Coach

CONS
-Injuries

Defending champs, most talented and best coach. Have played well all year, and have continued that with Kobe on the shelf. In my mind, when healthy they should be favored in a 7-game series against any team in the league. Not much to criticize. If Kobe is sharing the ball, they are almost unstoppable on offense. They aren't a great three-point shooting team. Bottom line, if Kobe's ankle holds up they should at least win the West.

2. CAVS:
PROS
-Lebron
CONS
-Lebron

-I am sure Cavs fans want to talk about the rest of the team and how he has a great supporting cast, but that is bunk. It is all Lebron all the time. They will go as far as he takes them. In the same respect though, it is the gift and the curse scenario here. If they fall into that old trap of Lebron making moves and the rest of the team watching, they will disappoint again. I don't love their coach and I worry about their fight in a tough series, especially when they are down. If Lebron pushes these guys, to run with him and they are able to stay involved/hit shots, Cavs should win the East and set up a dream Kove vs Lebron Scenario.

3. MAGIC
PROS
-From 1-12 most talent in the league
-Best center in the league
-Great three-point shooting

CONS
-Chemistry
-Coach

-When you look at this roster, they can pretty much match up with any team in the league. They can go small, big, shooter, traditional, pretty much any type of line-up with effectiveness. My problem with them is a lack of a go-to guy in crunch-time. Turkolu used to be that guy and he is gone. Now they not only struggle with who will take the shot, but who will handle the ball. They had a lot of upheaval i the offseason for a conference champ. Plus, the coach has been grilled on numerous occasions for his playoff performance. They need to find a rotation for the playoffs. My expectation is that they will find their groove and peak for playoff time. If so, they will be a force to be reckoned with.

4. NUGGETS
PROS
-Most explosive team in the NBA
-Great 1-2 combo in Billups/Melo
-Homecourt advantage

CONS
-Meltdown potential

-I love watching this team play. On any given night they can blow any team in the league out by 30. At the same time, I am still waiting for the blow-up. So many guys have meltdown potential (Melo, Kenyon, JR, Anderson, even the coach). They consistently give the Lakers everything they can handle (2-0 this season) though, and Billups may be the stabilizing force needed to get them over the hump. They play in a loud building, and Denver is always tough to play in with that thin air (just look at home/away splits of all Denver teams over history).

5. CELTICS...Really..
PROS
-Championship pedigree

CONS
-Age
-Tumultuous season/environment

-The only real reason I am putting the Celts here is that they won it 2 years ago, and still have that same core group of guys. In reality, I don't give them much of a chance. Then need to trade Ray Allen, if not for this year, then for the health of the franchise going forward. If I had to make a case for them though, I would say that if Pierce and KG are healthy they will get some of that old magic back. They play well on the road, and have intense leadership. Have weapons all over the floor on offense and tough D. In reality though, as I hears Chuck Barkley say yesterday, "Old people don't get better, they die." This minirun of the past 3 years has died.

Predictions:

*Finals: Cavs vs Lakers
*If I had balls and what I want to pick: Cavs vs Nuggets
*Celtics will not make it past the 2nd round.
*Cavs will win a game 7 at home against Orlando in the East Conf Finals
*The Knicks will give up a top 10 pick to the Jazz.

Random, Non-NBA thought on my mind:
I work in finance, so a good chunk of my day is spent watching CNBC. Now, I feel that they do a good job for the most part. I view myself as a moderate, and can handle both sides of the political debate. What I find so ridiculous though is the whining and complaining of everyone on this network when it comes to Obama and taxes. I respect their point of view and agree on some of their points, but I find it the height of hypocrisy that you have 80% old, white, rich men bitching about how the rich should not get taxed more. Of course they don't want to get taxed more!! They want to stay rich. I just find it bizarre. Can we get some perspective please?? I know you aren't going to get the poor people on TV in that format, but I just can't deal with the ridiculousness.

Monday, February 8, 2010

Changing of the Guard..

It is the day after the Super Bowl. The start of the dead zone in sports. About six weeks until March Madness, two months until regular season baseball, and about 10 weeks until NBA playoffs. In any event, last night was a great game. Everything is over analyzed in this game, as we all know. I thought the Saints played an aggressive game and did what they needed to do to win the game. The Colts still could have won it, but I thought Caldwell played too conservative at the end of the 1st half. The Colts were caught with their pants down at the beginning of the 2nd half, and Peyton basically imploded in the 4th quarter. Not just the pick 6 he threw. He had a chance to score a TD, and then have 3 timeouts left at the end of the game to have a chance to win, and he mismanaged the clock by calling a needless timeout by the goal line, as well as almost throwing another pick into the hands of Saints player.

I see this game as the beginning of the end of the AFC dominance of this league. From 1984-1996 the NFC won 13 straight Super Bowls. From 1997-2006, the AFC won eight out of 10 years. Now the NFC has won two of the last three, and the AFC teams that have dominated the last decade all have pretty big issues. Meanwhile, when you look at the league, the teams on the cusp are in the NFC, such as the Saints (not really, since they just won, but still have franchise QB in his prime and young weapons and a young coach), Vikings (if Favre can keep this up), and the Cowboys (just a ton of talent on all sides of the ball). The Packers have a young pro bowl QB, and the Giants still have a bunch young talent and Eli in his prime. Not to mention the Niners (Hi Will!) and Falcons, who will both be sleeper teams going into next season, with potentially bigtime offenses. Lets look a the AFC...

Colts: Still at the top of their game, but losing this game could have a lasting impact. It is the toughest game in sports to lose, and franchises often feel the effects for years. People will say Peyton won't allow that to happen, but those same people didn't think Peyton would throw that pick 6. This was a very tough season for the Colts not to win it all (after not going for the undefeated season). This franchise has had some very tough playoff losses before, but this is the worst yet. Just look back at past Super Bowl losers and you will see the effect a loss in this game has.

Pats: A team on the decline in most people's minds. Brady and Bellichek are still in place but the defense is a mess, Welker may never be the same, and Moss is getting older. They need a a major overhaul to compete for a title.

Steelers: Tomlin and Big Ben are still there, as are the big defensive players (Harrison, Woodley, Polumalu). I would put them as the favorite in the AFC going into next year, but this year was very alarming. The D was a mess, and when the coach declared war on the league in early Dec, the team went out and lost to the Browns and the Raiders. There were locker room issues between Ward & Ben, and they showed a lack of fight down the stretch.

Chargers: How much longer are they gunna stick with this coach and core group of players? LDT will be gone, but this team has consistently choked in the playoffs (3 home losses in the last decade). They were the hot pick for the Super Bowl going into the playoffs, but not they need a change to that coaching staff/core to get this team over the hump.

Up and comers like the Jets, Dolphins, Ravens and Titans are lurking. I think we are seeing a change of the guard in the AFC, and the balance of power overall in the NFL. The key will be how the young QBs develop. The AFC has been lead by Brady and Manning over the last 10 years (and Big Ben to an extent). The AFC will now see if Young, Flacco, Henne, and Sanchez can grab the torch. In my mind, the NFC has the upper hand, as they have already won two of the last 3 and have a more developed crop of QBs ready to lead the way in Eli, Brees, Rogers, Ryan and Romo.

Oh, and the Jets will go 8-8 next season...

Wednesday, October 1, 2008

One More Thing...

A bunch of people in the media are bringing up the fact that the big players on the Mets have disappeared in big spots, while the Phillies guys have come through. Namely Reyes/Wright/Beltran compared to Rollins/Howard/Utley. I understand the argument and I have always been critical of the Mets guys not stepping up, at least Wright and Reyes. One point that I have not seen made though is the fact that Rollins & Utley are both 29 and Howard is 28. Reyes and Wright are still only 25. Before these past two years, the Phillies had a reputation of shrinking in September and never coming through. It took them a few years to get over the hump. I'm just saying we have to have a little patience with Reyes and Wright even if they are killing us right now.

Just to be clear, I am not saying that this is the rule. I know that the Brewers young guys like Fielder & Braun came up huge the past week and they had never really been here before. All I am saying is that you can't trade a Wright or Reyes at age 25 when they each have only had 3 chances at a pennant race/playoffs each while at young ages. Some players need to mature to hit in the big spot. Some are born that way and some never find it. I have faith that Reyes & Wright will find it. Its only natural to compare the Phillies core to the Mets core, but while they are all 28 or older, Reyes and Wright are still only 25, and they both did not go to college. There is a certain maturity and calmness on the field that the Phillies have developed that they did not have at 25, but do now. Even Braun with the Brewers was a star at the U before getting drafted where be probably cultivated a lot of that cockiness.

Monday, September 29, 2008

It Has Set In...

I think I was kind of in disbelief last night. I agree with a lot of what I wrote, but as I woke up this morning the dread of the season being over hit me pretty hard. No more baseball and no more Mets. Before I go any further I just wanna address this team. I have been a pretty big critic about their attitude of thinking they are better than they are, including how they handled the Willie Randolph firing. I will call out one guy for this attitude. Carlos Delgado. He had a great final 3 months of the season and could have been the MVP, but when he makes comments like "we have the talent to dominate the division", then he pisses me off. This team lost 2 straight years to the Phillies. The Mets can deny it all they want, but the Phillies have proven time and again over the past 2 years that they are the better team. Until the Mets either win the division or beat the Phillies in a playoff series, then they need to shut up about them.

Anyway, I'm glad the Giants are coming off their bye this week, and hopefully they will continue to distract me with wins deep into the winter.

I did not want seconds...

Today was a rough one. As if last year wasn't brutal enough, the Mets had to go and break our hearts again. Last year I was in disbelief at this time, but right now it just feels like a reoccurring nightmare. It is nowhere near the collapse as last year, but the bottom line is that this team did not play well down the stretch and blew a lead for the second straight year.

After the loss set in last year, I felt anger and betrayal. I didn't look forward to a new season, I just wanted to erase the past. I can honestly say that right now I want the 2009 season to start as soon as possible. With a new bullpen of course. I am not that naive Mets fan that just looks at the bullpen and places all the blame. I will be the first guy to point out how David Wright gave us nothing in the clutch. There is no arguing the fact that this Mets offense lives and dies by Jose Reyes getting on base, and in too many of these Sept games, he has disappeared. One thing I won't do is rip Carlos Beltran. Until he wins a championship in New York, everyone will point to that last pitch in 2006 against the Cards, but if you look at his career fairly you will see a guy who has been a big time player in big time games, at the plate, in the field and on the bases.

So once again, where do we go from here? I don't know how Omar will go about it, but we need a closer and a complete overhaul of the bullpen. I am pretty sure that we have seen the last of Heilman, Schowenweiss and at least one or two others. We locked Castillo into a long-term deal at 2nd base which looks very ugly right now. I honestly don't know where the Mets go as far as the line-up is concerned. Daniel Murphy looked very good late in the year, and he should get a chance to play somewhere everyday in Spring Training. Delgado will have his option picked up and I don't see Reyes, Wright or Beltran going anywhere. I think the catcher platoon worked out pretty well, but if they can find an improvement at that spot then there really is nothing stopping them.

What I would love is to acquire a guy like Brian Roberts from the Orioles. Obviously the Castillo contract hurts in that regard, but I just feel that this Mets offense relies way too much on Reyes. We need a high on base guy with speed to pair with Reyes at the top of the line-up to take some of the pressure off of him. Roberts is the perfect guy for this team, I just don't know how they can maneuver it. As for starting pitching you are bringing back Johan, Maine and Pelfrey. I would also sign Perez to 5 yrs 60 million if thats what it takes & let Pedro walk. Find a 5th starter among young guys and cheaper options.

Look, until the Mets prove they can win in the clutch, people will make fun and question them. I don't blame them. If I wasn't a Mets fan I'd be the first guy saying that they need to change the core of this team now that changing the manager did not change they play in September. At the same time though you need patience. I know patience is tough when youngsters like Ryan Howard and Ryan Braun are winning games for other teams, but you can't act irrationally. Look at the NFL. The Eagles lost three straight NFC title games, but they stuck with their guys. I know they brought TO in, but he wasn't around in the playoffs when they made their Super Bowl run. The same thing with Peyton Manning and the Colts. They stuck to their game and eventually won it all. I think that patience is key, especially in day and age. As for right now, I will root for Torre & the Dodgers, as well as the Rays. I have to watch baseball, but it won't be easy. This is the life of a Met fan. We know its never easy, but there is still so much potential on this roster for the future, especially when I compare it to days gone by (early to mid 1990s). I know that is overly optimistic, but after last years collapse, I feel like I have gone through the absolute worst and I can handle anything when it comes to this team. I am ready for some better times though...

Monday, August 11, 2008

Wknd Wonders

-The Yankees are done. Stick a form in them.


-I don't wanna hear any crying about their injuries. When you have a team filled with guys over the age of 35, they are going to get injured. Joba getting injured sucks, but that how it goes sometimes. The Rays just had Crawford go on the DL, while the Mets had Maine go on the DL. Fact is that the older your team, the more more risk of durability.


-I'm not the biggest Girardi fan, so take this as you will, but I all I know is that Torre did not miss one postseason in 12 years, and that included relying on guys like Aaron Small and Shawn Chacon when they were needed. As well as Wang and Cano being called up out of nowhere when no one even thought of them as big prospects.


-I don't think he changed that much to their end of year record, but you can't help but be a little envious of the excitement over at Jet camp. I have had that feeling when Piazza was traded to the Mets and we felt like we finally had a superstar to call our own, and I can tell you it is amazing.


-I hopped on the Rays bandwagon in June, but even I am surprised with how they have started to pull away a little bit. I still think the Sox will end up taking the division, but the Rays just won of 4 to start a big road trip, which is pretty important when you realize that they are a much better team at home.


-I am starting to think that it is just the Cubs year. I don't really see a weakness on that team. The Mets have the firepower and starting pitching to play with them, but they might not even get to the playoffs. The Dbacks have the pitching, but their lineup will have a lot of trouble against good pitching. If it is the Cubs year, then I guess you could say they are due, 100 years is a loooong time.


-The Opening Ceremonies for the Olympics were awesome. I don't usually get into that stuff, but I did Fri night for a bit. Really impressive, and so far I have watched more of the events than usual. Being awake when they are going on live helps with that I guess.


-Mets have a pretty easy rest of the month schedule-wise. Unless the Philles go in the tank though I see this going down to the last week of the season (unfortunately). I do not have confidence in this team winning those big games down the stretch. How could I after last year?

-RIP Bernie Mac


Saturday, August 9, 2008

Late Night

A few months ago I started working nights. I go into the office every Sunday around 6ish and I work until 5AM Monday morning. I do that all week until 5AM Friday morning when my weekend starts. It has its good and bads, but for the most part the hours suck. The worst part is on those Fridays or Saturdays that I don't go out, I usually can't fall asleep before 2 or 3 AM. I have tried a few different things to try and fix this, but nothing really works. The bottom line is that five days a week I am awake all night, and it is not really possible to then function as a normal human being on the weekends. In reality it would take a couple weeks to get myself have on a normal schedule. In any event, I was just tossing and turning in bed and I thought, why not use this time to do something that I enjoy. So, here I am writing on this blog once again. Here I go..

Training camp for the 2008 NFL season started a couple weeks ago, so we now can officially put Super Bowl XLII in our rearview mirror. I was not writing when the Giants were making their run, so I missed the chance to express how amazing that was for me. I really never had one of my teams win a championship before. The Rangers won in 1994, but hockey was never as important to me as the other sports and I was only 11. Any championship would have been awesome for me, but this run by the Giants was as good as it gets. There is no reason to go over the specifics, as everyone knows what happen. All I know though is as it was going on, I kept on thinking to myself that it will never get better than this. I will never see my team go on a run so unexpected, and so pure as I did last January.

One of the reasons that it was so special personally was my friend David who I have mentioned before here. He passed away about a year ago. He introduced me to sports and more specifically, to the Giants. I remember watching the Giants play the Rams at home in the 1989 playoffs with him (they lost in OT on a long TD catch by Flipper Anderson). The first Super Bowl I remember watching was at his apartment, when Montana brought the Niners back against Cincinnati. I remember the Giants playing the Niners on Monday Night Football when they were both 10-1 in 1990, which at the time felt the biggest game ever. I remember him talking about the Giants being bad for so many years in the 60's and 70's. How he suffered for so long and Parcells brought them back. He was the guy I called when the Giants blew the playoff game to the Niners in January 2003. He was who I called for everything sports-related.

I also remember him passing last summer and how tough it was for me. Tougher than I ever could imagine. I missed him so much and I felt like I had no one who I could talk to or relate to on it. Every time I watched a game I thought about him. It just so happens that September the Mets went through a historic collapse where they blew something like a 7 game lead with 17 games to go in the season. Not having him there to talk to about it made it that much tougher. When the Giants season started, all I hoped was for them to have a great season for him. They started out 0-2, and could not have looked worse. They began to turn it around after beating Washington on the road with an unbelievable late game defensive stand, but the rest of the regular season was a bit of a roller coaster with them finishing 10-6 and in the playoffs for a 3rd straight year.

I never remember David going to a Giants game. I also never heard him trash Eli, when it seemed like the whole city was. He was as loyal a Giant fan as they come. When I ran the NYC marathon for him last November, the first thing I did when I finished was put on a brand new Giants sweatshirt in tribute to him.

The playoffs were an amazing run, but all I kept wishing was that I could have watched those games with him. I want to think that he saw those games somewhere and it made him feel as happy as it made me feel. Over the past year, I have been able to grieve and through that I have felt better. Every year around this time thought I can't help but think of him. The optimism of training camp. Reading a story in the paper everyday about a rookie, or a position battle, or a player who looks like he may have a breakout year. That is what David was all about. The hope of a new season. I know that there is nothing that the Giants can do this season to top what happened last year. So all I would say to them is not to try to. Play hard, and know that fans like me will never forget what they gave us one short year ago. To David, I would say I miss you, and I hope that you are able to watch somewhere because these Giants just might shock us again this year.