Crunch Time

I know, I know, it's not even September yet, but for a lot of division winning hopefuls and wild card chasers August is the month that usually makes or breaks your season.

For starters, obviously I'm going to go in depth with the newly rejuvenated Atlanta Braves. Although they are currently 4.5 games back of the Mets (which happens to be the largest division lead besides the Red Sox 6 game lead of the Yanks), they are a mere 1.5 games back of SD and the wild card.

Now, the Braves and Mets start a pivotal series at Shea tonight. Why is it pivotal? Because if the Braves manage to get swept or even lose 2 out of 3, they will have dug themselves a pretty deep hole in the division race, not to mention the wild card in which there are 5 teams within 3 games of the lead. A lot of the time with so many teams in a close race, it's actually more difficult to climb that hill.

However, I'm not the least bit worried. Even with Renteria hurt Yunel Escobar is more than equipped to take over his spot at SS, and already had a game-winning hit on Sunday. With Beltran hurt, the Braves overall dominance in Shea (Chipper in particular), and a slight edge in the pitching match-ups to the Braves, taking 2 out of 3 is almost a must.

Speaking of the pitching match-ups, the more I look at them, the less I think the Braves have a significant advantage. At first glace, I thought that 2 out of 3 would be somewhat of a cakewalk, however, when taking a closer look, it might be more of a dogfight.

Tonight, Carlyle vs. Perez seemed like a wash, but with Perez a much better pitcher at home (even though he's 50/50 to throw lights out or walk 7 guys), and to be honest I never know what I'm getting out of Carlyle, I'll have to give the edge to the Mets.

The next two games however the Braves have the advantage, but not as much as I first thought. Smoltz vs. Lawrence would seem like a huge edge for Atlanta, but if you know anything about John, you know he's hurt. His shoulder has been bothering him all year, and in his last two starts his velocity has gone down and he has been hit hard. Half of my wishes he'd just go on the DL and rest up for the stretch run. I'd still take a 75% Smoltz over Brian Lawrence any day of the week and twice on Sunday, but not as significantly.

Thursday's Hudson vs. El Duque match again was one that at first I thought was a huge advantage for the Braves, but Hudson can be hot and cold, and so can Hernandez. I'll still take my chances with the former 20-game winner.

Taking at least 2 out of 3 for the Braves would be huge for the stretch run, and all I'm asking for is them to be within 2 games or so (hopefully with a comfortable wild card cushion as well) when myself and Cheddar Bob show up at Shea on September 11th with my Braves jersey, hopefully getting pelted with hot dogs and beer, and 50,000+ chanting Laaaaarryyy, Laaaarrrry.

For the Yankees, it's a little more simple. They have been beating up on the minor leagues lately and will continue to do so for the next week or so. However, their schedule becomes much more difficult in the next month and a half and I find it hard to believe they will be able to keep up this hitting clinic they are putting on right now.

I still think the division is out of reach, especially with the Red Sox pitching staff, and I also think the wild card won't be as easy as it is looking right now. The Yankees will begin to cool off and the Tigers are a much better team than they are putting on the field right now.

Bottom line, playoff spots in both leagues will be hard to come by this year, and I'm thoroughly looking forward to enjoying all the races.

Quickies:

• Quite a milestone weekend: ARod's 500th, followed by Barry's 755th, and capped off on Sunday with Glavine's 300th.
• If you haven't seen the Dari Franchitti crash from Sunday you are doing yourself a huge disservice, keep in mind he got out of the car and walked away from this, amazing: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XWI-OyDq8mU.
• Rory Sabbatini...what a clown.
• Speaking of clowns (actually in the same fashion of speaking too soon) every fantasy draft, whether it's football or baseball, I have a couple picks where I get laughed at. Yet every year I'm very competitive. This year's football (and most years) the main culprit is the least competitive guy in the league (no joke) and actually finished in dead last for football last year...when will he learn?
• Fascinating post yesterday Curtin...very informative.