It's been awhile, but here I am. Recently I have found myself with a lot to say on sports (and no one to tell it to, since I work in the darkness). Right now is a very interesting time in baseball. We potentially have five division races that could go down to the end of the season, with four of those have more than two teams very much still in the division race. Home teams have dominated this year at a rate higher than usual, which adds an extra bit of intrigue to those late season series. People will want to write off the teams like Tampa & Minnesota, but take a look at their home records. I think its the combination of being young and built to play indoors, but each just dominates at home. Anyway, here are my thoughts on the division races. I'll start with the Junior circuit...
AL East
For years it has been all about Sox/Yanks. Finally we have another team that came to play. The Rays will be there until the end too. They have a very balanced line-up with power, speed and lefty/righty combos to cause math-up problems. Their bullpen has been great and their starting rotation has been pretty consistent from 1-5. Their #5 starter (Sonnanstine) has 11 wins already. They have an advantage right now in the standings, but they have a long west coast road trip coming up next week where they go into Seattle, Oakland and Texas. Plus they end the season with an 8 game road trip into Baltimore and Detroit. I think they have the players to win the division, but they are going to have to play better on the road down the stretch to be able to hold onto this lead. I think they have the consistent starting pitching to get it done, but I am not sure about the consistency of that line-up.
The Sox has went through one of the weirdest couple of weeks a team could have. This next month will show me if they are still the team to beat in the AL. To me, the one thing that set up apart from every team in baseball over the past 5 years was the 3-4 Manny/Papi combo. It will go down right next to Gehrig/Ruth, Mantle Maris, McCovey/Mays as one of the best of all time. Now they don't have that. They still have a very potent line-up, but there definitely is not that same fear in the middle of that line-up. Their rotation is extremely good, but their bullpen is shaky at best. With all that being said though, I would be shocked if they did not make the playoffs.
As for the Yankees, they are a much more dangerous team than they were 2 weeks ago. If you asked me their most glaring problems then I would have said right-handed power, back-end of the rotation, and lack of a lefty in the bullpen. Well, two of those things were fixed with the Nady/Marte trade. Plus, with Pudge they don't have to play a .220 hitter everyday in Molina, which is pretty important since Melky is already an everyday player who is a horrible offensive performer. The back-end of the rotation is still a problem, but Hughes and Kennedy will both get another shot at some point, and Wang could be heard from (even if it isn't by Sept 1). They end the year with a 6 game road trip, the last 3 being in Boston. If they are behind both the Rays and Sox going into that, it will be a very tough proposition.
Prediction: 1. Sox 2. Rays 3. Yanks
AL Central
Three team race if you count the Tigers (who are in rough shape after getting swept out of Tampa). The White Sox have been leading most of the season and I think it is there division to lose. The Tigers have played much better since May 1, but they dug themselves too big a hole in the beginning of the year to come back. The Twins are very dangerous, but they just don't have the offensive fire-power to compete on the road consistently. Lirano coming back is a yuuuuge wild card, and they will be in it until the end. The White Sox have the strongest team from top to bottom, but they have a weirdly constructed offensive team. A lot of older guys and no true center fielder. Their starting pitching is very solid. The White Sox go into Minnesota the second to last series of the year. If they don't have some breathing room before that, then they will be in trouble because after that the Twins finish with 3 games at home against Kansas City.
1. White Sox 2. Twins 3. Tigers
AL West
ANGELS.
Wild Card
Twins.
I really want to say the Rays, but their September schedule is just so much tougher than the Twins. They play the Yanks/Red Sox 12 times and finish with 8 games on the road. The Rays and Twins do play a 4 game sat in September in Tampa which could be huge for Tampa's cause, but in the end I just don't think they will get it done.
NL EAST
The Mets are full of themselves. They have been like this for years now. Ever since their playoff run in 2006, they have acted like they are the Sox or the Yanks and they have this great track record of making the playoffs and winning, which is flat-out wrong. They made Willie the scapegoat for last year and acted like that winning streak around the all-star break was what they were meant to do all year. All that winning streak did though was mask the fact that they have an inadequate team. Their #5 hitter the past couple of days has either been Tatis or Easly. That is a joke. I don't know what the Pirates were asking for, but when I see the prospects the Yankees gave up and what the Dodgers gave up for Manny it bothers me that I will see either Tatis or Endy playing every day the rest of the year. The Mets have the best starting rotation in the league, and that is really their only chance of winning this thing. They have to dominate to give their constantly overused bullpen a rest, and take pressure off their offense that just does not have the horses (unless Chuch comes back, then things look a little different).
The Phillies have a monster offense, but shaky pitching. Hammels is the only guy in that rotation I would trust. Their hitting is not only great, but they have a very strong bench, which helps them a ton late in games. Not to mention they have built great character over the past couple of seasons and continue to have this "us against the world" mentality, especially when it comes to facing the Mets. They will be there until the end for sure, I think it depends more on how the Mets and Marlins hold up rather then if Philly does.
The Marlins are a pesky bunch. There is really no better way to say it. If I had to pick one guy on that team that represents the group it would be Dan Uggla. Plays hard, hits a ton of home runs, strike out all the time and is a DH in the field. The pitching is inconsistent, and does not have anything close to an ace. I keep thinking that they will fall out of it, but they just hang around. I still think by Sept 1 they will be about 5 or 6 back of the Mets/Phils. They go into Shea though the last weekend of the season. I will be there Sunday Sept 28 to say goodbye to the old ballpark. Last year the Mets ended their year on a Sunday at Shea against Florida. Will history repeat itself? Ugh..
1. Mets 2. Phillies 3. Marlins
AL Central
The Cubs are the cream of the crop this year in the NL. They made a huge statement sweeping the Brewers in Milwaukee last week. They have a dominant offense, which is even better now with Soriano back. The rotation is scary if Harden can stay healthy, and the bullpen has been great all year. They play with a swagger that comes from their manager. I think they win the division and leave the Cards and Brewers to fight for the scraps. As for that, I think the Brewers have to be the favorite. With Sabathia and Sheets at the top of that rotation I don't care about the clowns they have in their bullpen. I watch the Cards play and see the line-ups they put out there and I don't understand how they are even a .500 team. You have to credit the manager and the front office that keep this team competitive year in and year out.
1. Cubs 2. Brewers 3. Cards
AL West
The West was won the day the Dodgers traded for Manny. He brings a presence to that franchise that they have not had since Piazza. I think this team goes on a bigtime run over the next 20 games. Billingsly is developing into an ace and the bullpen has been good even without Saito. The Dbacks built such a huge lead, but their offense has just not been consistent. They have too many young hitters that strike out a lot and don't hit in big spots. They needed a Manny or Texiera to come in as much as anyone in the league, but they did not pull the trigger. Their pitching will keep them in it, but Manny will lift the Dodgers to the playoffs.
1. Dodgers 2. D'Backs
Wild Card
Brewers
The Sabathia deal gives them two aces at the top of their staff. Over the course of a season they can overcome their horrible pen with their offense and starting pitching. The Phillies have the guts, but just not nearly enough arms. If they could have gotten a Burnett this might be a different story.
PLAYOFFS?!?!
AL would be weird without the Yanks and even wierder with the Rays. Up until Manny was gone I would have said the Sox were the team to beat. Like I said, that dynamic with Manny/Ortiz was such a weapon in big games. Now I look at the Sox as a very tough team, but missing that intimidating element they used to have. Angels look like the team to beat, with the best manager in baseball armed with his best team yet.
The NL could shape up to have a great NLCS. Think about a Dodgers/Mets, Cubs/Dodgers, or Mets/Cubs match-up. From a historical standpoint, those are all great mach-ups for the bigtime baseball fan. I think the Cubs will be there, not sure about the other two. In a short series, the Brewers could crash the pary with those two horses in their rotation.
BTW...I know you contraries and Sox clowns will tell me how much of a cancer Manny was in the clubhouse and how his teammates wanted him gone, blahblahblah. I understand all that and I still feel that after the trade deadline passed they woulda realized he was here until the end of the season and would have adjusted just like they have so many times in the past. I will never believe that the Red Sox have a better chance to win this year with Jason Bay in left field and not Manny.
Feels good to be back. You won't be getting a post every day, but check back frequently and I assure you that there will be good shit on a consistent basis. This one was a bit long. I had a lot to get off my chest about the sport in general. Anyway, no more STKAFI, since Isiah is gone. We will have to figure out a new one. Until then...Peace!
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