Wednesday, October 24, 2007

QB Generation

Random Topic. I was listening to Mike and Mike this morning and the mentioned the topic below. The pretty much piss poor level of quarterbacking in the NFL today. Think about this...


1992: Dan Marino, John Elway, Steve Young, Jim Kelly, Troy Aikman, Brett Favre (first good year), Joe Montana (second to last year)

2007: Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Brett Favre (near the end)

That is a pretty considerable difference. In 1992 we had five hall of fame quarterbacks at or near the top of their game who each would play in a Super Bowl before their career was over, plus a rising star and a legend at the end. Now we have only two, with one legend and no clear rising star (sorry Carson Palmer, but you have not looked good this year). Going into this season we thought Drew Brees and/or Carson Palmer could be at that level but they both have disappointed greatly. Why is this? I really don't know, but here are a few aspects of the argument.


  • Maybe 1992 was just a golden age for quarterbacks in a way. We were spoiled.

  • Nowadays offenses are throwing the ball more than ever. The West Coast offense was popularized in the 1980's by the 49ers, but now every team incorporates some aspects of that offense. There are more screen passes (WR and RB), more three step drops, etc. One would think QBs would be better as a result of offenses being geared more around them.

  • Possibly the QBs have become so accustomed to the short passes/quick release that many struggle with the aspect of sitting in the pocket longer and waiting for plays to develop or finding secondary receivers if the primary route is covered. Who knows?

  • One thing is for sure and that is the feeling of 1999-2002 that you can win a Super Bowl with an average QB is pretty much a thing of the past. When Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson were winning Super Bowls a lot of GMs felt that there was no need to waste high draft picks/big money on QBs. Well in recent years you have Phil Rivers, Ben Rothleisburger, Eli Manning, Kyle Boller, David Carr, Carson Palmer, Alex Smith, Brady Quinn, Jamarcus Russell, etc. There are more QBs being taken high in the draft than ever, but there are also more QB busts than ever.
  • Some may say the QBs are being thrown into the fire too soon. The playbooks are so complex, and the QBs don't have enough time to learn them. As a result they play poorly, their confidence drops, and so on.
  • These are all just random thoughts on why this could be the case. Like I said, maybe it is just random. Maybe I will look back in 15 years and see that Carson Palmer went on to win two Super Bowls, as well as Eli and Roethlisburger and this will be looked at as incorrect. One thing is true though and that is in 1992 you knew you had a solid group of very good QBs. Now, not so much. Just think about fantasy football. You could have gotten the same production from drafting Romo or Eli in the 6th round as people have gotten from brees and Palmer by drafting them in the 2nd round. All four have had turnover problems. Meanwhile, you have other QBs like Garcia and Garrard who aren't turning the ball over, but can not carry a team like a Romo or a Brees can.
  • The QB pool in October of 2007 does not look deep. A lot depends on winning, so we shall see how these other QBs develop over the next six to 18 months. Right now though it is Brady/Manning and then a bunch of above average QBs. Which one will make the leap to join them the way Young, Aikman and Favre joined Elway, Marino and Kelly?

I am rooting for and feel that the Rockies will win. I am a National League guy and unless an arch enemy was in the series I would have to root for the NL. The Rockies line-up is deeper than the Indians and their defense is tighter. Their pitching does not look as good on paper, but when you consider how poorly Sabathia and Carmona pitched against Boston they look pretty similar. I think Boston wins game one and then losses four in a row.

That Boston line-up looks much worse without Papi or Lowell or Youk in that NL park. Plus if you have watched the postseason, the numbers could be deceiving. Beckett has been unreal, but Schilling has looked very hittable. We all know how shaky Dice-K has looked as well. I see a lot of hitting in this series, with the Rockies doing more of it. They are a confident team who thinks they have a higher power on their side (cooocooo, but true).

STKAFI

11 comments:

Anonymous said...

What about us!

Anonymous said...

I have a couple comments (even though I agree with the overall post, I like to play devil's advocate):

Granted football, particuarly the offense, has changed over the past 15 years to probably a little more of a passing game. But I think it is very, very early to start saying that the quarterbacks in the league won't stack up to be as good as the one's in '92.

Below I have put together a comparison of the stats for those QB's stated in '92, and the records of their teams, compared to the current "above average" QB's stats today (and in parenthesis projected for the remaining 2007 season). In addition, you could probably say out of the '92 QB's mentioned, Young, Kelly, and Aikman were in their primes at the time, and in '07 Brady, Manning are in their primes, and you could make the argument that Romo, Palmer, Eli, and Big Ben are entering into theirs (like the Favre and Elway of the '92 class):

1992:

Marino (11-5): 24 TD, 16 INT, 59.6% Comp. %, and 4116 yards

Elway (8-8): 10, 17, 55.1%, 2242

Young (14-2): 25, 7, 66.%, 3465

Kelly (11-5): 23, 19, 59.1%, 3457

Aikman (13-3): 23, 14, 63.8%, 3445

Favre (9-7): 18, 13, 64.1, 3221

*Montana (14-2): 2, 0, 126 yards
*backup this year.

2007 (Projected 16 game season):

Brady (7-0): 27 TD (62), 7 INT (16), 73.8 Comp. %, 2125 Yards (4857)

Manning (6-0): 11 (29), 3 (8), 68.3%, 1578 (4208)

Romo (6-1): 16 (37), 9 (21), 62.8%, 1984 (4535)

Palmer (2-4): 13 (35), 9 (24), 62.9%, 1717 (4579)

Eli (5-2): 13 (30), 9, (21), 60.4%, 1525 (3489)

Big Ben (4-2): 13 (37), 5 (13), 63.8%, 1303 (3475)

Favre (5-1): 9 (24), 6 (16), 64.8%, 1715 (4573)

Hasselback (4-3): 11 (25), 6 (14), 61.4%, 1705 (3897)

So not only are the QB's putting up better numbers in all categories(again, benefiting from the change in the offensive game), but they are leading winning teams. You have to keep in mind that this generation of QB's are just entering their primes. Keep in mind, only Montana, Young, Favre, and Elway have won Superbowl's out of that group, Brady and Manning already have won as well. And I have a feeling by the time Brady and Manning reach the Marino, Montana '92 stage, in 10 years or so, that the Romo's, Palmer's, Eli's, and Roethlisberger's could be in the same category as the Elway's, Kelly's, Young's, and Aikman's of '92.

Could be.

Anonymous said...

Oh yeah, and I forgot to mention Big Ben has already won a Superbowl also. Even more evidence.

Anonymous said...

CAn you explain why if ELi and Palmer both have 13TDs and 9INTs, then why are they projected to have different TD and INT amounts at the end of the season?

JWS said...

Giants haven't had their bye week, Bengals have

JWS said...

No one mentioned that defenses are also much more complicated today, which makes it harder for the QB's. Blitz schemes, playing different defensive line formations, shifting, this is all way more exotic today then it was 15 years ago.

Also, defenses are faster, more athletic, etc.

Anonymous said...

You really think my brother could be entering his prime?

Anonymous said...

Well if you look at the league, I am having one of the top 5-8 years of any QB in the NFL...keep hating.

Anonymous said...

Dad still likes me more.

Anonymous said...

what about me?

Anonymous said...

you're better than eli too...