Always the trendy time to evaluate the potential of a season. I know a lot could happen between now and the all-star break. I truly believe there are only five teams with potential to win it all though, no matter what happens in the trade market. So....here we go..
1. LAKERS:
PROS
-Kobe
-Size
-Coach
CONS
-Injuries
Defending champs, most talented and best coach. Have played well all year, and have continued that with Kobe on the shelf. In my mind, when healthy they should be favored in a 7-game series against any team in the league. Not much to criticize. If Kobe is sharing the ball, they are almost unstoppable on offense. They aren't a great three-point shooting team. Bottom line, if Kobe's ankle holds up they should at least win the West.
2. CAVS:
PROS
-Lebron
CONS
-Lebron
-I am sure Cavs fans want to talk about the rest of the team and how he has a great supporting cast, but that is bunk. It is all Lebron all the time. They will go as far as he takes them. In the same respect though, it is the gift and the curse scenario here. If they fall into that old trap of Lebron making moves and the rest of the team watching, they will disappoint again. I don't love their coach and I worry about their fight in a tough series, especially when they are down. If Lebron pushes these guys, to run with him and they are able to stay involved/hit shots, Cavs should win the East and set up a dream Kove vs Lebron Scenario.
3. MAGIC
PROS
-From 1-12 most talent in the league
-Best center in the league
-Great three-point shooting
CONS
-Chemistry
-Coach
-When you look at this roster, they can pretty much match up with any team in the league. They can go small, big, shooter, traditional, pretty much any type of line-up with effectiveness. My problem with them is a lack of a go-to guy in crunch-time. Turkolu used to be that guy and he is gone. Now they not only struggle with who will take the shot, but who will handle the ball. They had a lot of upheaval i the offseason for a conference champ. Plus, the coach has been grilled on numerous occasions for his playoff performance. They need to find a rotation for the playoffs. My expectation is that they will find their groove and peak for playoff time. If so, they will be a force to be reckoned with.
4. NUGGETS
PROS
-Most explosive team in the NBA
-Great 1-2 combo in Billups/Melo
-Homecourt advantage
CONS
-Meltdown potential
-I love watching this team play. On any given night they can blow any team in the league out by 30. At the same time, I am still waiting for the blow-up. So many guys have meltdown potential (Melo, Kenyon, JR, Anderson, even the coach). They consistently give the Lakers everything they can handle (2-0 this season) though, and Billups may be the stabilizing force needed to get them over the hump. They play in a loud building, and Denver is always tough to play in with that thin air (just look at home/away splits of all Denver teams over history).
5. CELTICS...Really..
PROS
-Championship pedigree
CONS
-Age
-Tumultuous season/environment
-The only real reason I am putting the Celts here is that they won it 2 years ago, and still have that same core group of guys. In reality, I don't give them much of a chance. Then need to trade Ray Allen, if not for this year, then for the health of the franchise going forward. If I had to make a case for them though, I would say that if Pierce and KG are healthy they will get some of that old magic back. They play well on the road, and have intense leadership. Have weapons all over the floor on offense and tough D. In reality though, as I hears Chuck Barkley say yesterday, "Old people don't get better, they die." This minirun of the past 3 years has died.
Predictions:
*Finals: Cavs vs Lakers
*If I had balls and what I want to pick: Cavs vs Nuggets
*Celtics will not make it past the 2nd round.
*Cavs will win a game 7 at home against Orlando in the East Conf Finals
*The Knicks will give up a top 10 pick to the Jazz.
Random, Non-NBA thought on my mind:
I work in finance, so a good chunk of my day is spent watching CNBC. Now, I feel that they do a good job for the most part. I view myself as a moderate, and can handle both sides of the political debate. What I find so ridiculous though is the whining and complaining of everyone on this network when it comes to Obama and taxes. I respect their point of view and agree on some of their points, but I find it the height of hypocrisy that you have 80% old, white, rich men bitching about how the rich should not get taxed more. Of course they don't want to get taxed more!! They want to stay rich. I just find it bizarre. Can we get some perspective please?? I know you aren't going to get the poor people on TV in that format, but I just can't deal with the ridiculousness.
Friday, February 12, 2010
Monday, February 8, 2010
Changing of the Guard..
It is the day after the Super Bowl. The start of the dead zone in sports. About six weeks until March Madness, two months until regular season baseball, and about 10 weeks until NBA playoffs. In any event, last night was a great game. Everything is over analyzed in this game, as we all know. I thought the Saints played an aggressive game and did what they needed to do to win the game. The Colts still could have won it, but I thought Caldwell played too conservative at the end of the 1st half. The Colts were caught with their pants down at the beginning of the 2nd half, and Peyton basically imploded in the 4th quarter. Not just the pick 6 he threw. He had a chance to score a TD, and then have 3 timeouts left at the end of the game to have a chance to win, and he mismanaged the clock by calling a needless timeout by the goal line, as well as almost throwing another pick into the hands of Saints player.
I see this game as the beginning of the end of the AFC dominance of this league. From 1984-1996 the NFC won 13 straight Super Bowls. From 1997-2006, the AFC won eight out of 10 years. Now the NFC has won two of the last three, and the AFC teams that have dominated the last decade all have pretty big issues. Meanwhile, when you look at the league, the teams on the cusp are in the NFC, such as the Saints (not really, since they just won, but still have franchise QB in his prime and young weapons and a young coach), Vikings (if Favre can keep this up), and the Cowboys (just a ton of talent on all sides of the ball). The Packers have a young pro bowl QB, and the Giants still have a bunch young talent and Eli in his prime. Not to mention the Niners (Hi Will!) and Falcons, who will both be sleeper teams going into next season, with potentially bigtime offenses. Lets look a the AFC...
Colts: Still at the top of their game, but losing this game could have a lasting impact. It is the toughest game in sports to lose, and franchises often feel the effects for years. People will say Peyton won't allow that to happen, but those same people didn't think Peyton would throw that pick 6. This was a very tough season for the Colts not to win it all (after not going for the undefeated season). This franchise has had some very tough playoff losses before, but this is the worst yet. Just look back at past Super Bowl losers and you will see the effect a loss in this game has.
Pats: A team on the decline in most people's minds. Brady and Bellichek are still in place but the defense is a mess, Welker may never be the same, and Moss is getting older. They need a a major overhaul to compete for a title.
Steelers: Tomlin and Big Ben are still there, as are the big defensive players (Harrison, Woodley, Polumalu). I would put them as the favorite in the AFC going into next year, but this year was very alarming. The D was a mess, and when the coach declared war on the league in early Dec, the team went out and lost to the Browns and the Raiders. There were locker room issues between Ward & Ben, and they showed a lack of fight down the stretch.
Chargers: How much longer are they gunna stick with this coach and core group of players? LDT will be gone, but this team has consistently choked in the playoffs (3 home losses in the last decade). They were the hot pick for the Super Bowl going into the playoffs, but not they need a change to that coaching staff/core to get this team over the hump.
Up and comers like the Jets, Dolphins, Ravens and Titans are lurking. I think we are seeing a change of the guard in the AFC, and the balance of power overall in the NFL. The key will be how the young QBs develop. The AFC has been lead by Brady and Manning over the last 10 years (and Big Ben to an extent). The AFC will now see if Young, Flacco, Henne, and Sanchez can grab the torch. In my mind, the NFC has the upper hand, as they have already won two of the last 3 and have a more developed crop of QBs ready to lead the way in Eli, Brees, Rogers, Ryan and Romo.
Oh, and the Jets will go 8-8 next season...
I see this game as the beginning of the end of the AFC dominance of this league. From 1984-1996 the NFC won 13 straight Super Bowls. From 1997-2006, the AFC won eight out of 10 years. Now the NFC has won two of the last three, and the AFC teams that have dominated the last decade all have pretty big issues. Meanwhile, when you look at the league, the teams on the cusp are in the NFC, such as the Saints (not really, since they just won, but still have franchise QB in his prime and young weapons and a young coach), Vikings (if Favre can keep this up), and the Cowboys (just a ton of talent on all sides of the ball). The Packers have a young pro bowl QB, and the Giants still have a bunch young talent and Eli in his prime. Not to mention the Niners (Hi Will!) and Falcons, who will both be sleeper teams going into next season, with potentially bigtime offenses. Lets look a the AFC...
Colts: Still at the top of their game, but losing this game could have a lasting impact. It is the toughest game in sports to lose, and franchises often feel the effects for years. People will say Peyton won't allow that to happen, but those same people didn't think Peyton would throw that pick 6. This was a very tough season for the Colts not to win it all (after not going for the undefeated season). This franchise has had some very tough playoff losses before, but this is the worst yet. Just look back at past Super Bowl losers and you will see the effect a loss in this game has.
Pats: A team on the decline in most people's minds. Brady and Bellichek are still in place but the defense is a mess, Welker may never be the same, and Moss is getting older. They need a a major overhaul to compete for a title.
Steelers: Tomlin and Big Ben are still there, as are the big defensive players (Harrison, Woodley, Polumalu). I would put them as the favorite in the AFC going into next year, but this year was very alarming. The D was a mess, and when the coach declared war on the league in early Dec, the team went out and lost to the Browns and the Raiders. There were locker room issues between Ward & Ben, and they showed a lack of fight down the stretch.
Chargers: How much longer are they gunna stick with this coach and core group of players? LDT will be gone, but this team has consistently choked in the playoffs (3 home losses in the last decade). They were the hot pick for the Super Bowl going into the playoffs, but not they need a change to that coaching staff/core to get this team over the hump.
Up and comers like the Jets, Dolphins, Ravens and Titans are lurking. I think we are seeing a change of the guard in the AFC, and the balance of power overall in the NFL. The key will be how the young QBs develop. The AFC has been lead by Brady and Manning over the last 10 years (and Big Ben to an extent). The AFC will now see if Young, Flacco, Henne, and Sanchez can grab the torch. In my mind, the NFC has the upper hand, as they have already won two of the last 3 and have a more developed crop of QBs ready to lead the way in Eli, Brees, Rogers, Ryan and Romo.
Oh, and the Jets will go 8-8 next season...
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